NITI Aayog released the third edition of its flagship publication, Trade Watch Quarterly, covering the third quarter of FY 2024-25 (October–December 2024). The report was officially launched by Dr. Arvind Virmani, Member, NITI Aayog, during a formal event held in the national capital.
This latest edition offers a comprehensive and timely analysis of India’s trade dynamics in both merchandise and services sectors, while also providing an in-depth thematic overview of evolving US trade policies and their implications for India’s export landscape.
India’s merchandise exports in Q3 FY25 grew modestly by 3% to reach USD 108.7 billion, despite prevailing geopolitical uncertainties. Imports during the same period rose by 6.5% to USD 187.5 billion. However, a substantial services surplus of USD 52.3 billion, driven by a robust 17% growth in services exports, helped narrow the overall trade deficit. This reinforces India’s growing global competitiveness in services, particularly digitally delivered services (DDS), where India ranked fifth globally in 2024 with USD 269 billion in DDS exports.
The report notes that India’s export composition remains stable, with noteworthy performance in sectors such as aircraft and spacecraft parts, which entered the top ten exported commodities with a remarkable 200% year-on-year growth. High-tech merchandise exports, particularly in electrical machinery and defence-related goods, have also shown a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6% since 2014.
The thematic section of this quarter’s report zeroes in on the changing US tariff and trade structures. It outlines how India’s relatively favourable tariff positioning compared to key global competitors offers a unique opportunity to expand its market share in the United States. Strategic sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electrical machinery are identified as prime candidates to benefit from these shifting dynamics.
Speaking at the launch, Dr. Virmani commended the publication team for producing a “data-rich, analytically sharp” document that will serve as an invaluable reference for policymakers, industry leaders, and academia. He emphasised that India’s evolving trade strategy reflects a deeper economic transformation powered by competitiveness, innovation, and targeted efforts to strengthen footholds in major global markets, particularly the US.
Dr. Virmani further remarked that as global trade is increasingly influenced by geopolitical shifts, technological advances, and policy realignments, such publications are essential in guiding forward-looking strategies. He urged stakeholders to utilise the findings of this report to refine policies, promote trade facilitation, and deepen India’s integration into the global trading system.
The full Trade Watch Quarterly report for Q3 FY 2024-25 is available for download on the NITI Aayog website: TRADE WATCH
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