Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth affirmed on Wednesday that the government anticipates no significant downside risks to India’s GDP growth for 2024-25, even amid a mild slowdown and rising inflation. Speaking at FICCI’s curtain raiser ahead of its 97th AGM and Annual Convention, Seth acknowledged deceleration in certain economic segments but dismissed any substantial deviation from the projected growth rate of 6.5%-7.0%.
“Growth could be closer to 6.5% or 7%, but I wouldn’t venture into exact estimates,” Seth said. The Economic Survey tabled earlier this year conservatively projected real GDP growth at 6.5%-7% for 2024-25, though market expectations remain higher.
India, the fastest-growing major economy, recorded a robust GDP growth of 8.2% in FY 2023-24, following 7.2% in FY 2022-23 and 8.7% in FY 2021-22. However, Seth noted the current fiscal year’s growth has been partly tempered by a slowdown in capital expenditure (capex) during the Lok Sabha elections and an inflationary surge, particularly in food prices.
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Despite these challenges, Seth reiterated that inflation outside the food basket is not a significant concern. Addressing capex, he indicated there might be minor undershooting of the government’s ambitious Rs 11.11 lakh crore capex target for 2024-25, representing an 11.1% increase over the previous year. Nevertheless, he downplayed the issue, emphasizing that the overall economic trajectory remains positive.
The GDP data for the July-September quarter, expected on November 29, will provide further insights into the growth trend. India’s economy registered a 6.7% expansion in the April-June quarter, slightly below the RBI’s 7.1% forecast.