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Domestic air passenger traffic reached approximately 138.5 lakh in October 2024, marking a 9.6 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase, according to ICRA’s latest report. This figure is also 6.3 percent higher than the 130.3 lakh recorded in September 2024 and represents a 12.8 percent rise compared to pre-COVID levels from October 2019. Airline capacity deployment in October 2024 increased by 7.6 percent compared to October 2023.

From April to October of the current financial year (7MFY25), domestic passenger traffic stood at around 932 lakh, reflecting a YoY growth of 5.9 percent and an increase of 12.6 percent over the pre-COVID benchmark of 827.5 lakh in 7MFY20. Additionally, in the first half of FY25 (H1FY25), Indian carriers reported international passenger traffic of 162.6 lakh—a 16 percent YoY growth and a 46.5 percent jump over pre-COVID levels of 111.0 lakh.

While the sector has experienced robust growth, ICRA indicates the industry’s yields may be impacted by ongoing high aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices and Indian rupee depreciation against the USD. Although ATF prices in FY25 to date are down 6.8 percent YoY, they remain significantly elevated compared to pre-COVID rates. The average ATF price for 8M FY25 (April–November 2024) was Rs 96,162 per kilolitre.

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ICRA further notes that supply chain issues and engine failures have constrained capacity for the last 18 months, a trend likely to persist through 2024. The Indian aviation industry is expected to report a net loss of Rs 20-30 billion each for FY2025 and FY2026, following a loss of Rs 10 billion in FY2024.

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